| November 11, 2026 | By Katrin Bennhold |
Good morning, world. It didn’t take long after last week’s midterm losses for the Trump administration to begin publicly fighting over the war in Iran.
Divisions are now out in the open. “The reason we lost is the war,” Vice President JD Vance declared. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, in contrast, posted a defiant video defending the war. He also had to defend himself from a now-shelved effort — led by a Republican congressman with Democratic support — to impeach him. (More on that below.)
We’re seeing a formidable U.S. military buildup in the Middle East — a third aircraft carrier is expected to arrive soon. Fighter jets, long-range bombers, warships and 50,000 troops are all on standby.
So what does this all mean for the war? Today, my colleagues David Sanger and Eric Schmitt outline four potential scenarios.
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No easy choices
By David E. Sanger and Eric Schmitt
The public split last week between Vice President JD Vance and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth over the war with Iran is now fueling an urgent question: How does the U.S. get out of the conflict?
The debate inside the administration has hardly been a secret since the war started more than eight months ago. Vance privately expressed skepticism; Hegseth was among the most gung-ho.
Now, President Trump must decide where he will come down as he weighs whether to launch a renewed attack.
On Monday, he said that the war was “effectively over” (an assertion Iran swiftly denounced as “fake news”). But he also said the U.S. was “locked and loaded” should circumstances change.
At the core of the problem, according to people engaged in the debate, is a fundamental issue: Trump and his aides still cannot agree on what they are trying to accomplish.
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| The U.S. aircraft carrier Theodore Roosevelt in Singapore on Saturday. 2026 Planet Labs PBC, via Reuters |
Here are some of the U.S. options under review:
A brief, intense escalation
The most ambitious option that the U.S. and Israeli militaries have developed calls for a short but intensive operation over several days. The targets would probably include Iran’s energy infrastructure, nuclear facilities, and missile and drone arsenals. There are no expectations that a few days of battle will collapse the government; for that, U.S. officials are relying on continued economic pressure.
Trump has often spoken about targeting Pickaxe Mountain, the American name for a deeply buried nuclear site that Iranians call Kooh Kolang. But even the 22,000-pound bomb known as MOAB, the largest nonnuclear weapon in the U.S. arsenal, would probably not destroy an underground site like Pickaxe, which is composed of granite.
The campaign would inflict more damage on Iran’s already degraded missile and drone arsenal, and could perhaps result in concessions in limiting the country’s nuclear program and fully reopening the Strait of Hormuz. But such an approach has not worked before. Iran would strike back at Gulf states, almost certainly driving up energy prices and inflation. Defending the Gulf states would strain the Pentagon’s eroded global supply of missile interceptors.
Pared-back strikes
A shorter, scaled-back version of the first plan would probably take many energy targets off the table, focusing on military and nuclear sites, officials said. The thinking behind this approach is that Iran would be less likely to retaliate by attacking Gulf energy infrastructure.
Trump could claim that the U.S. had inflicted additional damage on Iran’s arsenal, declare victory and begin the exodus from the region. A more limited offensive would also preserve the Pentagon’s stockpile of scarce interceptors.
But administration officials concede that a limited strike would achieve none of the goals Trump set out at the beginning of the war, and would still leave Iran with significant leverage over the Strait of Hormuz.
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| Vice President JD Vance at a campaign rally last month. Tierney L. Cross for The New York Times |
Try diplomacy
Before the midterm elections, Vance reached out to Gen. Mohsen Rezaei, the secretary of the Supreme National Security Council and a former commander in chief of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, suggesting that American and Iranian officials meet soon.
Initially, the proposal seemed well received, and officials from Qatar, Pakistan, Turkey and Saudi Arabia have all been involved in communicating with the Iranians. But in recent days, some American negotiators have turned more pessimistic, according to people familiar with their thinking, fearing that whatever agreement they reach could be undercut back in Tehran by radical hard-liners.
History shows that a diplomatic solution is the only way to have long-term limits on a nation’s nuclear program. But many experts believe Trump would be lucky to get limits akin to those in the Obama-era deal, which Trump withdrew from in 2018.
Muddle along
In this scenario, the U.S. would live with the status quo: an expensive naval blockade that prevents Iran from exporting oil, while U.S. escorts and patrols ensure that 11 to 18 million barrels of non-Iranian oil get through each day. This would effectively allow Trump to avoid making a decision, in the hopes of a longer-term resolution.
He could also seek to negotiate a narrow deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, leave sanctions in place and slowly withdraw — letting the Gulf Arabs work out a deal with the Iranians over how the strait is managed.
But such a deal would not address the nuclear or missile issues — much less the nature of the Iranian leadership — that led Trump to go to war in February. And there would be no timeline to the endgame, meaning the conflict could drag on for the remaining years of Trump’s presidency and into that of his successor.
| MORE TOP NEWS |
A derailed impeachment effort
Republicans in the United States House of Representatives banded together to shelve the effort to impeach Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth.
The House voted to refer the charges to a committee, which would allow Republicans to slow the process indefinitely.
The eight articles of impeachment introduced by a Republican lawmaker, Thomas Massie, involve the war in Iran and other operations. Democrats could still move to impeach Hegseth next year when they assume power, but have so far not indicated whether they will try to do so.
For more: Democrats are preparing to open investigations into Trump, his family and his administration. Michael Gold explains in the video below.
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| MORNING READ |
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| AROUND THE WORLD |
Budapest at night
My colleague Andrew Higgins first visited Hungary’s capital soon after Soviet troops pulled out in 1991. Back then, there was a palpable sense of giddiness over the fall of the Iron Curtain, despite the gloom and decay of a city blighted by more than four decades of Communism.
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Senate Bean Soup has been served to senators and their staff for more than 100 years in the U.S. Senate Dining Room. This stovetop recipe honors the original, with navy beans, ham hocks, butter and onion, but perks it up with carrots and smoked paprika.










