| October 16, 2026 | By Katrin Bennhold |
Good morning, world. If you want to know why Donald Trump and the Republican Party are worried about the midterm elections next month, just look at Texas. It’s been more than 30 years since a Democrat won the state. But polls are showing that the party has a slight edge in a crucial Senate race.
Texas is a microcosm of the midterms, in which Democrats hope to win back control of Congress. But it’s also its own wild story. The Democratic candidate, James Talarico, is 37 and deeply religious. His Republican opponent, Ken Paxton, is facing a divorce “on biblical grounds.” The amount of money spent on this race is eye-watering.
Today my colleague Sam Sifton, who hosts our sister newsletter, The Morning, writes about what’s happening in Texas and why it matters so much.
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| Ken Paxton and James Talarico. Kenny Holston/The New York Times; Antranik Tavitian for The New York Times |
Choosin’ Texas
By Sam Sifton
There are a number of tight races in the coming midterm elections, but there isn’t a more expensive one than the Senate showdown in Texas.
It pits Talarico, the Democratic nominee, against Paxton, the state’s conservative attorney general. More than half a billion dollars has been spent on advertising already. It could become the most expensive nonpresidential contest in U.S. history.
Democrats are hopeful, because Talarico has a tiny lead in the polls. But “such optimism stands in defiance of the political axiom that Texas is where idealistic Democrats go to be mugged by reality,” writes my colleague Robert Draper, a three-decade veteran of Texas political reporting. The Democratic Party has not won a statewide race there for 32 years.
Republicans are worried because Democrats are building momentum across the country. But this race may turn on who each man says he — and his opponent — is.
An ugly race
Talarico has introduced himself to Texans as a good Christian with a record of bipartisanship. At a town hall meeting this week, he spoke about his faith and appealed to undecided voters.
“I’m a proud Texas Democrat, but I already have a religion and I already have a sports team,” he said. “So, I have no problem sharing hard truths with my party if it’s what’s best for Texas.”
His appeal is meant to be broad, with proposals to cap credit card rates, cut middle-class taxes and assist people with their first down payment on a home.
In return, Paxton and other Republicans paint Talarico as a “weird” radical who believes that “God is nonbinary” and that there are more than two biological sexes. (Talarico did say those things but later renounced them.) Vice President JD Vance, stumping in Texas on Wednesday, mocked Talarico (who has a girlfriend) with a gay joke. “I love you too, sir,” Vance told a man in the crowd. “In a totally platonic way, to be clear. I’m the vice president, not James Talarico.”
It gets uglier. Recently, Talarico disappeared from the campaign trail for nine days, saying he had a bad case of the flu. His conservative opponents pounced, spreading a rumor that he had been at a mental health facility in Ohio, a state Talarico said he had never visited.
That story proved false — The Times obtained time-stamped security camera images showing that Talarico spent a week at home — but the episode offered a lesson for the age of misinformation, my colleague Bayliss Wagner reported: “It is politically risky for a candidate, even one too ill to campaign, to disappear for nine days.”
Baggage to spare
There’s a reason Paxton and his allies have clawed at every possible advantage. He’s got baggage to spare. During a quarter-century in Texas politics, he has never lost an election. But as attorney general, he was charged with felony fraud. He cut a deal to drop the charges in exchange for paying restitution and performing community service. Then, a group of his aides accused him of bribery and abuse of office. The lower house of the state legislature impeached him in 2023. (The upper house acquitted him.) And last year, his wife, Angela Paxton, a state senator, filed for divorce on “biblical grounds,” after his impeachment trial revealed that he’d used burner phones, a shared Uber account and secret email address to conduct an affair.
No wonder her appearance in a new ad doesn’t mention Paxton’s name, but simply urges people to vote for the Republican ticket.
And Trump, for his part? His endorsement was strangely backhanded: “He may not dress right. He may not talk exactly perfectly, and he may not be the best-looking guy I’ve ever seen,” Trump said last month. “But you know what he is? He’s the greatest attorney general in America.”
Jess Bidgood, who writes our On Politics newsletter, had a good line about that: “It’s never great when the two people most crucial to your political survival struggle to simply say nice things about you,” she writes. “It’s worse when one of those people is the president, and the other is your estranged wife.”
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These buttery shortbread rounds are a riff on the ones sold by Walker’s Shortbread in Scotland. A reader, Mia, suggested adding lemon zest or pistachios. “My dream is to devote several weeks to making many different variations of shortbread, just to see which ones are best.” We hear you, Mia.






