The New York Times: Υποθέσεις που απορρίφθηκαν κατά εναντίον των «εχθρών» του Τραμπ – Η Ευρώπη επιδιώκει χαμηλότερους δασμούς στο κρασί, τα ζυμαρικά και τον χάλυβα – Οι Γερμανοί και η μπύρα τους – Πώς φαίνεται το ειρηνευτικό σχέδιο στην Ουκρανία και τη Ρωσία – Ένα σημαντικό πισωγύρισμα για τον Τραμπ – Η ζυθοποιία Einbecker στη Γερμανία έχει επιβιώσει από πυρκαγιές, λιμούς, δύο μεγάλες επιδημίες και τέσσερις πολέμους από τότε που άνοιξε πριν από 600 χρόνια, διατηρούμενη στη ζωή χάρη στη συνεχή ζήτηση για τις ισχυρές λάγκερ της. Τώρα αντιμετωπίζει αυτό που μπορεί να είναι η μεγαλύτερη απειλή της: Οι Γερμανοί πίνουν πολύ λιγότερη μπύρα – Τι φορούν… στο Χονγκ Κονγκ

Cases dismissed against Trump’s “enemies”
Europe seeks lower tariffs on wine, pasta and stee
lGermans and their beer
After a Russian missile attack in Ternopil, western Ukraine. Mauricio Lima for The New York Times

How the peace plan looks to Ukraine and Russia

The war in Ukraine has been raging for almost four years; 11 if you start with Crimea’s annexation in 2014. So many predictions have proved wrong along the way: Russia will win within a week. Ukraine is winning, against the odds. Western sanctions will bleed Russia dry and force it to the negotiating table.

Instead, this has turned into a war of attrition, with Russia slowly advancing.

The demands on both sides are irreconcilable. Russia will never withdraw to a pre-2014 position, analysts say. Ukraine will never agree to a deal that doesn’t include assurances against a future invasion by Russia. But in between those positions, what are the cards each side holds? Where is there room for negotiation?

Andrew Kramer, our Ukraine bureau chief, and Anatoly Kurmanaev, a longtime correspondent in Russia, have covered the war from the beginning. I gave them both a call.

Andrew, what are Ukraine’s red lines?

Territory is absolutely critical. They also need credible security guarantees. The agreement does offer Ukraine security guarantees, but the version we saw doesn’t spell them out. That’s apparently being worked out in a separate annex to the agreement. So that’s really where the rubber meets the road.

Anatoly, what are Russia’s red lines?

Ruling out Ukrainian NATO membership for good — not just a promise, but enshrining it in Ukrainian law and NATO’s statutes. Russia also wants to claim some additional territory, like the Donbas, that Putin can sell as a victory. The presence of NATO troops in Ukraine is also a hard no.

Andrew, what territory, at a maximum, could you see Ukraine ceding?

Ukraine in March already agreed to a cease-fire along the current frontline. So that would be de facto recognition of Russian control of everything east and south of the frontline. But the addition in the plan is the part of the Donetsk region that remains under Ukrainian control. It would probably take Russia at least two years to capture that. Giving it away is a red line.

One compromise might be calling this area a demilitarized zone under Russian control.

And could Ukraine live with that in exchange for concessions elsewhere?

That’s really the big ask: Could the government in Kyiv present this to Ukrainians as necessary for a long-term peace? Privately, Ukrainian officials say that security guarantees are more important than the exact location of the new demilitarized zone. Because that’s what guarantees the long-term sovereignty and security of the country. It’s what would allow economic development to restart.

So what do credible security guarantees look like?

The models on the table are to have some European troops west of the Dnipro River, which would be largely symbolic, as a reassurance force; a tripwire model, which would require some larger force in Europe that would be triggered to join the fight by another attack; or a promise of Western assistance if Russia were to invade again — something modeled on NATO’s Article 5 of mutual defense but without NATO.

Ukrainian soldiers in the Zaporizhzhia region of Ukraine last month.  Tyler Hicks/The New York Times

Anatoly, remind us of Russia’s objections to a relationship between NATO and Ukraine.

Putin called the invasion a campaign to “de-Nazify” and “demilitarize” Ukraine. This narrative stems from falsehoods about Ukrainian history and its government. But the stated rationale is that Russia invaded to eliminate a perceived threat, and the threat was Ukraine gravitating toward NATO. The Kremlin has presented the war as a pre-emptive strike.

NATO’s gradual eastward expansion prompted a very real sense of outrage among Russians, including Putin critics. People do worry about Ukraine becoming a base for Western troops and missiles.

Andrew, is there a way to work around the NATO objection by having peacekeepers wearing a European Union hat instead?

That happened in Georgia on the contact line between Russia and Georgia in the South Ossetia and Abkhazia regions. So there is a precedent for that.

Viewed from Ukraine, do you think there’s a credible chance that this plan could actually lead to a peace deal?

Yes, I do. Eventually. The more iterations this goes through, the more likely something will stick.

And there are some points where there’s scope for negotiation. The size of the cap on the Ukrainian military, for instance. Analysts say Ukraine’s postwar military will inevitably have to be reduced in size. They can’t keep a million-man standing army.

And on NATO: there’s an understanding that Ukraine will not get into NATO because not all members of NATO would accept it. So this is no longer the disagreement it once was.

Anatoly, what about Russia?

For all the faults of this plan, it seems to at least to try to incorporate some core demands on both sides. What do both sides need at the bare minimum to stop fighting? Both Putin and Zelensky face massive domestic challenges, and they both have to sell this as a victory to their constituents.

Andrew, do people in Ukraine give Trump credit for trying to negotiate something?

Yes, there’s perhaps surprising support. There was extraordinary frustration with the Biden administration’s policies of slow-walking aid, without making any efforts on the diplomatic side. The idea that there’s some sort of settlement potentially in the works is very hopeful, even if this might not be the final version.

MORE TOP NEWS
Monica Jorge for The New York Times; James Estrin/The New York Times

A major setback for Trump

A federal judge dismissed the charges against James Comey, the former F.B.I. director, and Letitia James, New York’s attorney general, yesterday. The ruling was a major defeat for President Trump in his effort to wield the criminal justice system against his perceived enemies.

The judge ruled that the appointment of the prosecutor was invalid and that she had no “lawful authority” to indict Comey and James, two of the president’s most high-profile targets. The rulings mean that the government could try to refile the charges.

OTHER NEWS
France’s new army chief ignited a public furor by saying the country must be “ready to accept losing our children” in a potential conflict with Russia.Trump said he had accepted an invitation from China’s leader, Xi Jinping, to visit Beijing in April.The Israeli military chief of staff has told about a dozen commanders that they face dismissal or discipline for failures during the Oct. 7, 2023 attacks.U.S. officials in Geneva revised Trump’s peace plan for Russia and Ukraine, making it more favorable to the latter, after an earlier draft was criticized as a capitulation to Moscow.European trade officials, who met with the U.S. this week, are hoping for a better deal on a list of items, including wine, spirits, steel and pasta.The killings of a husband and wife in Syria’s third-largest city, Homs, set off a new wave of sectarian violence over the weekend.An aid group, backed by Israel and the United States, that was widely accused of endangering Gazans who were seeking food announced that it was shutting down.Jimmy Cliff, the Jamaican singer who helped popularize reggae with songs like “You Can Get It If You Really Want,” died at 81. Listen to eight of his essential songs.
SPORTS

Football: Female players are looking at new revenue streams, but at what cost?

Formula 1: McLaren’s double disqualification has shaken up the championship.

Cricket: How England can salvage the Ashes, after a disastrous first match.

QUOTE OF THE DAY

“My goal was very simple — one flat and one Fiat!”

—Dharmendra, a Bollywood actor nicknamed He-Man for his rugged appeal, was one of India’s most versatile stars. He died yesterday at 89. In a 2009 interview, Dharmendra said he started out with modest ambitions, although he eventually owned a fleet of luxury cars.

MORNING READ
Sergey Ponomarev for The New York Times

The Einbecker Brewery in Germany has survived fires, famines, two major plagues and four wars since it opened 600 years ago, kept alive by constant demand for its robust lagers. Now it faces what may be its greatest threat: Germans are drinking a lot less beer.

Alcohol consumption in Germany has been sliding for decades, but there has been a recent drop that has caught brewers by surprise. Out of approximately 1,500 breweries in Germany, more than 50 have closed in the past year. Read more.

AROUND THE WORLD
Simbarashe Cha/The New York Times

What they’re wearing … in Hong Kong

During a recent visit to Hong Kong, locals and tourists alike told our fashion photographer Simbarashe Cha that few people really dressed well there. But in neighborhoods across the city, he found that the opposite was true. Take a look.

RECOMMENDATIONS

Read: For kids who are fans of the Percy Jackson series, these novels also offer thrilling adventures.

Travel: Planning a ski vacation in the U.S.? We have tips to save money.

Listen: It takes only five minutes to fall in love with musicals.

Chill: Instead of a lengthy holiday to-do list, how about a to-don’t list?

RECIPE
Rachel Vanni for The New York Times

This fancy French potato dish, duchess potatoes, dates back to the 1700s. It was given its aristocratic name to elevate the humble vegetable’s reputation in France, where it had yet to be widely embraced by home cooks. The dish requires a little more effort than your typical side, but it’s worth it.

Antonis Tsagronis
Antonis Tsagronis
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