Larissa, 28 March 2026
Incidents in Red sea, Bab-El-Mandab and Gulf of Aden
Days with no incident: 190
Last reported incident: 29 September 2025
General situation
Since the ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas entered into force on 9 October
2025, Houthi forces have ceased all attacks against Israel, and no attacks on merchant vessels
have been reported.
The last attack against Israel occurred on 8 October 2025, and the most recent incident
involving a merchant vessel was recorded on 29 September 2025.
Since the 28th of February, United States and Israel are carrying out strikes on Iranian territory.
Iran’s response touches all the Arabian Gulf countries. Even Turkey and Cyprus have been
targeted. The Proxies of Iran in Iraq and Lebanon jointed the fight and have conducted military
actions. On March 28, 2026, the Houthi resumed missile firing against Israel. The Houthis’
support to the Islamic Republic of Iran has once again materialized.
Current Situation
The time appears to have come for the Houthis to become actively involved in the conflict.
Missile launches against Israel mark the first step. The second could involve resuming attacks
on merchant ships passing within range of Houthi weapons, specifically in the Red Sea and
the eastern Gulf of Aden. All All vessels navigating in the aforementioned areas are advised to
navigate with caution.
At this stage, we assess that the Houthis’ military capabilities remain intact and substantial.
Threat Assessment
Taking into account the recent developments, the threat level for merchant vessels transiting
the Red Sea (RS), Bab el-Mandeb Strait (BaM), Gulf of Aden (GoA), and the Arabian Sea (AS)
is now assessed as follows:
Category Assessment Description
a. Medium For merchant vessels not linked to Israel or the United States.
b. High For vessels or shipping companies affiliated with Israeli interests (fully
or partially owned, flagged, or calling at Israeli ports)
This threat assessment is current as of the date of writing. This assessment will be updated as
far as necessary.
Recommendations
We recommend that merchant ships linked to Israel or the USA avoid passing through the Red
Sea and the Gulf of Aden until the threat becomes less pressing. Other ships should continue to
send their requests for support to the MSCIO.
Given the significant increase in the threat level, protective measures for ships supported by
Aspides have been reinforced. The direct consequence of this measure is greater involvement of
military resources. As military resources have not yet been increased, this will result in longer
waiting times for ships requesting close protection.
EUNAVFOR ASPIDES’ recommendations to the maritime community remain unchanged and
should continue to be observed rigorously:
- Avoid entry into Yemeni territorial waters at all times.
- When feasible, navigate closer to the African coastline to reduce exposure to potential
threats. - Maintain constant communication with MSCIO, and UKMTO and adhere strictly to
official guidance, risk-assessment protocols, and best management practices. - Conduct a voyage-specific risk assessment, taking into consideration any direct or
indirect affiliations between the vessel, its ownership, or its cargo and countries of
interest.
EUNAVFOR ASPIDES continues to act as a maritime security provider in support of Freedom
of Navigation, offering Close Protection and Monitoring Services across the Red Sea, Bab elMandeb Strait, and Gulf of Aden.
The operation continuously monitors the evolving threat environment and remains fully
committed to its defensive mandate, providing free support to vessels transiting the area.
Communication and Coordination
All vessel masters are reminded that the MSCIO remains available as a point of contact for
any incident, suspicious activity, or unusual observation.
Such reporting is vital to ensuring the safety of seafarers, the security of commercial shipping,
and the preservation of freedom of navigation under the protection of Operation ASPIDES.
Further information, including operational updates and recommendations, is available on the
MSCIO official webpage at https://mscio.eu.
For specific enquiries or to obtain pre-transit support, please contact: postmaster@mscio.eu.
End of communication.
