A billboard congratulating Donald Trump in Tel Aviv last week. Thomas Peter/Reuters |
What a Trump presidency means for the Middle East
As president, Donald Trump was a staunch supporter of Israel, recognizing Jerusalem as its capital, cutting off aid to the U.N. agency that supports Palestinian refugees and presenting a peace plan that favored Israel. Yet he has also publicly called for the war in Gaza to stop, saying in April, “Israel has to be very careful, because you’re losing a lot of the world.”
Members of Israel’s right-wing government believe that a Trump administration will allow it to end its wars in Gaza and Lebanon on favorable terms. But the president-elect’s comments about Israel’s actions in Gaza have also led some on the Palestinian side to hold out hope that Trump may be swayed, and on Friday he had a call with Mahmoud Abbas, the leader of the Palestinian Authority.
We asked Patrick Kingsley, the Jerusalem bureau chief, to explain what may lie in store for the region.
Donald Trump has promised in the past to bring peace to the Middle East. With the region in tumult, how plausible is that goal?
When last in office, Donald Trump helped forge landmark diplomatic ties between Israel and three Arab countries, ties that remain intact. Once back in power, he may aim to forge a similar pact between Israel and Saudi Arabia.
But he will find it far harder to seal a deal between Israel and the Palestinians — without which it will be impossible to achieve lasting peace in the region. And while it’s likely that early in his tenure there will be cease-fires in Gaza and Lebanon, those truces would likely have been reached under a Harris presidency, too.
What changes might we see for the relationship between Israel and the U.S.?
Many on the Israeli right hope that a Trump presidency will give them greater political cover to install Jewish settlers in Gaza, entrench Israeli control over the West Bank, overhaul the Israeli judicial system and launch bigger strikes on Iran.
But Trump is unpredictable, and his interests may not always align with Israel’s. For example, he suggested last month that he would not support regime change in Iran, a goal for some Israeli leaders.
How could Trump’s approach to the war in Gaza differ from that of the Biden administration?
Trump has said that he wants the war to end with a decisive Israeli victory. That suggests he would tolerate an even more forceful Israeli campaign than Biden. But equally, he may prove less patient with Israel if the war isn’t ended quickly.
What has Trump indicated about his vision for a postwar Gaza?
Under a peace plan proposed by Trump during his last tenure, the entirety of Gaza would have become part of a Palestinian state. But a half-decade later, the Israeli government is even less likely to accept Palestinian sovereignty, particularly after the atrocities committed by Hamas on Oct. 7, 2023. So Trump may ultimately prove more willing than Biden to accept Israeli civilian control over parts of the territory.
More news from the region:
Israel’s military struck a house in northern Gaza where displaced families were sheltering, killing at least 34 people, according to the main emergency service in the territory.An Israeli strike on a village north of Beirut killed at least 23 people and wounded six others, Lebanon’s health ministry said. |
A Biden administration deadline for Israel to improve humanitarian aid flow is days away, and a U.N.-backed panel warned that famine was imminent in the northern Gaza Strip.Qatar paused its role as a mediator in Gaza cease-fire talks, citing a deadlock. |
Donald Trump called for unity after declaring victory last week. Doug Mills/The New York Times |
Trump’s allies and adversaries eye his next moves
Eight years after his initial victory, Donald Trump returns to the White House with revenge on his mind. He spent much of the campaign focused on exacting “retribution” for all the ways he believed he had been wronged, leaving friends and foes alike anticipating a wave of payback after he takes office again in January.
Whether he will carry out those threats is unclear. He may not go after the biggest figures, like President Biden or Vice President Kamala Harris, but allies expect him to pursue at least some of the targets he has singled out after years of multiple impeachments, investigations, indictments and lawsuits.
Extra security measures have been deployed in Amsterdam. Robin Utrecht/EPA, via Shutterstock |
Chaos and clashes in Amsterdam
Violence in Amsterdam after a soccer match between an Israeli team and a local opponent has rattled the city’s Jewish and Muslim communities and drawn an international outcry. The police are scheduled to present a more detailed account this week. Here’s what we know about the incidents.
Though the exact sequence of events remains unclear, civic leaders in Amsterdam largely agree that incendiary and racist behavior by some Israeli fans stoked anger, and that multiple Israeli fans were assaulted across the city, in some cases by masked assailants. Some attackers seem to have singled out their victims for being Jewish.
Effects: Five people were hospitalized, and dozens more had been injured, some with broken legs. The police said 63 people had been arrested. Prime Minister Dick Schoof plans to convene two meetings of ministers this week on the Amsterdam attacks and on antisemitism. Israeli officials organized flights to bring hundreds of soccer fans home.
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